The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

The emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002 and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 has led to increased sampling of related sarbecoviruses circulating primarily in horseshoe bats. These viruses undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatial structuring across Asia. Employing recombination-aware phylogenetic inference on bat sarbecoviruses, we find that the closest-inferred bat virus ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 existed just ~1-3 years prior to their emergence in humans. Phylogeographic analyses examining the movement of related sarbecoviruses demonstrate that they traveled at similar rates to their horseshoe bat hosts and have been circulating for thousands of years in Asia. The closest-inferred bat virus ancestor of SARS-CoV likely circulated in western China, and that of SARS-CoV-2 likely circulated in a region comprising southwest China and northern Laos, both a substantial distance from where they emerged. This distance and recency indicate that the direct ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 could not have reached their respective sites of emergence via the bat reservoir alone. Our recombination-aware dating and phylogeographic analyses reveal a more accurate inference of evolutionary history than performing only whole-genome or single gene analyses. These results can guide future sampling efforts and demonstrate that viral genomic fragments extremely closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were circulating in horseshoe bats, confirming their importance as the reservoir species for SARS viruses.

Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 XBB variant derived from recombination of two Omicron subvariants (preprint)

In late 2022, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants have highly diversified, and XBB is spreading rapidly around the world. Our phylogenetic analyses suggested that XBB emerged by recombination of two co-circulating BA.2 lineages, BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1 (a progeny of BA.2.75), during the summer of 2022 around India. In vitro experiments revealed that XBB is the most profoundly resistant variant to BA.2/5 breakthrough infection sera ever and is more fusogenic than BA.2.75. Notably, the recombination breakpoint is located in the receptor-binding domain of spike, and each region of recombined spike conferred immune evasion and augmented fusogenicity to the XBB spike. Finally, the intrinsic pathogenicity of XBB in hamsters is comparable to or even lower than that of BA.2.75. Our multiscale investigation provided evidence suggesting that XBB is the first documented SARS-CoV-2 variant increasing its fitness through recombination rather than single mutations.

Conserved recombination patterns across coronavirus subgenera (preprint)

Recombination contributes to the genetic diversity found in coronaviruses and is known to be a prominent mechanism whereby they evolve. It is apparent, both from controlled experiments and in genome sequences sampled from nature, that patterns of recombination in coronaviruses are non-random and that this is likely attributable to a combination of sequence features that favour the occurrence of recombination breakpoints at specific genomic sites, and selection disfavouring the survival of recombinants within which favourable intra-genome interactions have been disrupted. Here we leverage available whole-genome sequence data for six coronavirus subgenera to identify specific patterns of recombination that are conserved between multiple subgenera and then identify the likely factors that underlie these conserved patterns. Specifically, we confirm the non-randomness of recombination breakpoints across all six tested coronavirus subgenera, locate conserved recombination hot- and cold-spots, and determine that the locations of transcriptional regulatory sequences are likely major determinants of conserved recombination breakpoint hot-spot locations. We find that while the locations of recombination breakpoints are not uniformly associated with degrees of nucleotide sequence conservation, they display significant tendencies in multiple coronavirus subgenera to occur in low guanine-cytosine content genome regions, in non-coding regions, at the edges of genes, and at sites within the Spike gene that are predicted to be minimally disruptive of Spike protein folding. While it is apparent that sequence features such as transcriptional regulatory sequences are likely major determinants of where the template-switching events that yield recombination breakpoints most commonly occur, it is evident that selection against misfolded recombinant proteins also strongly impacts observable recombination breakpoint distributions in coronavirus genomes sampled from nature.

A Prenylated dsRNA Sensor Protects Against Severe COVID-19 and is Absent in Horseshoe Bats (preprint)

Cell autonomous antiviral defenses can inhibit the replication of viruses and reduce transmission and disease severity. To better understand the antiviral response to SARS-CoV-2, we used interferon-stimulated gene (ISG) expression screening to reveal that OAS1, through RNase L, potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2. We show that while some people can express a prenylated OAS1 variant, that is membrane-associated and blocks SARS-CoV-2 infection, other people express a cytosolic, nonprenylated OAS1 variant which does not detect SARS-CoV-2 (determined by the splice-acceptor SNP Rs10774671). Alleles encoding nonprenylated OAS1 predominate except in people of African descent. Importantly, in hospitalized patients, expression of prenylated OAS1 was associated with protection from severe COVID-19, suggesting this antiviral defense is a major component of a protective antiviral response. Remarkably, approximately 55 million years ago, retrotransposition ablated the OAS1 prenylation signal in horseshoe bats (the presumed source of SARS-CoV-2). Thus, SARS-CoV-2 never had to adapt to evade this defense. As prenylated OAS1 is widespread in animals, the billions of people that lack a prenylated OAS1 could make humans particularly vulnerable to the spillover of coronaviruses from horseshoe bats.

Exploring the natural origins of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

The lack of an identifiable intermediate host species for the proximal animal ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 and the distance (~1500 km) from Wuhan to Yunnan province, where the closest evolutionary related coronaviruses circulating in horseshoe bats have been identified, is fueling speculation on the natural origins of SARS-CoV-2. Here we analyse SARS-CoV-2's related horseshoe bat and pangolin Sarbecoviruses and confirm Rhinolophus affinis continues to be the likely reservoir species as its host range extends across Central and Southern China. This would explain the bat Sarbecovirus recombinants in the West and East China, trafficked pangolin infections and bat Sarbecovirus recombinants linked to Southern China. Recent ecological disturbances as a result of changes in meat consumption could then explain SARS-CoV-2 transmission to humans through direct or indirect contact with the reservoir wildlife, and subsequent emergence towards Hubei in Central China. The only way, however, of finding the animal progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 as well as the whereabouts of its close relatives, very likely capable of posing a similar threat of emergence in the human population and other animals, will be by increasing the intensity of our sampling.

Recurrent independent emergence and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Spike amino acid H69/V70 deletions (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 Spike amino acid replacements in the receptor binding domain (RBD) occur relatively frequently and some have a consequence for immune recognition. Here we report recurrent emergence and significant onward transmission of a six-nucleotide deletion in the S gene, which results in loss of two amino acids: H69 and V70. Of particular note this deletion, 𝚫H69/V70, often co-occurs with the receptor binding motif amino acid replacements N501Y, N439K and Y453F. One of the 𝚫H69/V70+ N501Y lineages, B.1.1.7, is comprised of over 4000 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from the UK and includes eight other S gene mutations: RBD (N501Y and A570D), S1 (𝚫H69/V70 and 𝚫144/145) and S2 (P681H, T716I, S982A and D1118H). Some of these mutations have presumably arisen as a result of the virus evolving from immune selection pressure in infected individuals and at least one, lineage B.1.1.7, potentially from a chronic infection. Given our recent evidence that 𝚫H69/V70 enhances viral infectivity (Kemp et al. 2020), its effect on virus fitness appears to be independent to the RBD changes. Enhanced surveillance for the 𝚫H69/V70 deletion with and without RBD mutations should be considered as a priority. Permissive mutations such as 𝚫H69/V70 have the potential to enhance the ability of SARS-CoV-2 to generate new variants, including vaccine escape variants, that would have otherwise significantly reduced viral fitness.

Recurrent emergence and transmission of a SARS-CoV-2 Spike deletion ΔH69/V70 (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 amino acid replacements in the receptor binding domain (RBD) occur relatively frequently and some have a consequence for immune recognition. Here we report recurrent emergence and significant onward transmission of a six-nucleotide out of frame deletion in the S gene, which results in loss of two amino acids: H69 and V70. We report that in human infections {Delta}H69/V70 often co-occurs with the receptor binding motif amino acid replacements N501Y, N439K and Y453F, and in the latter two cases has followed the RBD mutation. One of the {Delta}H69/V70+ N501Y lineages, now known as B.1.1.7, has undergone rapid expansion and includes eight S gene mutations: RBD (N501Y and A570D), S1 ({Delta}H69/V70 and {Delta}144) and S2 (P681H, T716I, S982A and D1118H). In vitro, we show that {Delta}H69/V70 does not reduce serum neutralisation across multiple convalescent sera. However, {Delta}H69/V70 increases infectivity and is associated with increased incorporation of cleaved spike into virions. {Delta}H69/V70 is able to compensate for small infectivity defects induced by RBD mutations N501Y, N439K and Y453F. In addition, replacement of H69 and V70 residues in the B.1.1.7 spike reduces its infectivity and spike mediated cell-cell fusion. Based on our data {Delta}H69/V70 likely acts as a permissive mutation that allows acquisition of otherwise deleterious immune escape mutations. Enhanced surveillance for the {Delta}H69/V70 deletion with and without RBD mutations should be considered as a global priority not only as a marker for the B.1.1.7 variant, but potentially also for other emerging variants of concern. Vaccines designed to target the deleted spike protein could mitigate against its emergence as increased selective forces from immunity and vaccines increase globally. HighlightsO_LI{Delta}H69/V70 is present in at least 28 SARS-CoV-2 lineages C_LIO_LI{Delta}H69/V70 does not confer escape from convalescent sera C_LIO_LI{Delta}H69/V70 increases spike infectivity and compensates for RBD mutations C_LIO_LI{Delta}H69/V70 is associated with greater spike cleavage C_LIO_LIB.1.1.7 requires {Delta}H69/V70 for optimal spike cleavage and infectivity C_LI

The circulating SARS-CoV-2 spike variant N439K maintains fitness while evading antibody-mediated immunity (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 can mutate to evade immunity, with consequences for the efficacy of emerging vaccines and antibody therapeutics. Herein we demonstrate that the immunodominant SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) receptor binding motif (RBM) is the most divergent region of S, and provide epidemiological, clinical, and molecular characterization of a prevalent RBM variant, N439K. We demonstrate that N439K S protein has enhanced binding affinity to the hACE2 receptor, and that N439K virus has similar clinical outcomes and in vitro replication fitness as compared to wild- type. We observed that the N439K mutation resulted in immune escape from a panel of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, including one in clinical trials, as well as from polyclonal sera from a sizeable fraction of persons recovered from infection. Immune evasion mutations that maintain virulence and fitness such as N439K can emerge within SARS-CoV-2 S, highlighting the need for ongoing molecular surveillance to guide development and usage of vaccines and therapeutics.

Evidence of significant natural selection in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in bats, not humans (preprint)

RNA viruses are proficient at switching host species, and evolving adaptations to exploit the new hosts cells efficiently. Surprisingly, SARS-CoV-2 has apparently required no significant adaptation to humans since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, with no observed selective sweeps since genome sampling began. Here we assess the types of natural selection taking place in Sarbecoviruses in horseshoe bats versus SARS-CoV-2 evolution in humans. While there is moderate evidence of diversifying positive selection in SARS-CoV-2 in humans, it is limited to the early phase of the pandemic, and purifying selection is much weaker in SARS-CoV-2 than in related bat Sarbecoviruses. In contrast, our analysis detects significant positive episodic diversifying selection acting on the bat virus lineage SARS-CoV-2 emerged from, accompanied by an adaptive depletion in CpG composition presumed to be linked to the action of antiviral mechanisms in ancestral hosts. The closest bat virus to SARS-CoV-2, RmYN02 (sharing an ancestor [~]1976), is a recombinant with a structure that includes differential CpG content in Spike; clear evidence of coinfection and evolution in bats without involvement of other species. Collectively our results demonstrate the progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 was capable of near immediate human-human transmission as a consequence of its adaptive evolutionary history in bats, not humans.